Current Situation in the Philippines

The current international situation surrounding the Philippine Sea. Someone has provided a simple and concise summary.

https://m.blog.naver.com/ranto28/223937280433?isFromSearchAddView=true&recommendTrackingCode=0

Here it is.

I saw news from a past summit where Duterte, in a private bilateral meeting, told Xi Jinping that the region (around the Philippine Sea) is a matter of sovereignty and not subject to negotiation or deals. He stated that China's claim to the area is just their view and that he wants to conduct oil drilling there. Xi Jinping responded by saying they need to maintain their friendship and he doesn't want to quarrel with Duterte, calling him a friend. However, he frankly stated that if Duterte were to persistently interfere in this region, he would go to war with him. https://n.news.naver.com/article/020/0003066266?sid=104

In reality, the Philippines' naval power is negligible, and China's naval power is now considered to have surpassed that of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force. I can't even imagine how terrifying it must have been for Duterte to hear those words.

What I want to say. No source. My thoughts.

While China is indeed bullying and acting aggressively towards its neighbors through sheer force, I believe that if they were to truly decide on war, only one thing would need to be guaranteed. China is not a government that cares about justifications, public opinion, economy, industry, or resource supply like Western countries do. If the premise that the Communist Party's survival is possible is maintained, they would be aggressive in securing benefits through war. From that perspective, I actually believe Taiwan is safer. A failed invasion of Taiwan would mean the end of the Communist Party regime, so they would have to succeed at any cost. They have no other choice.

In that regard, rather than Taiwan, which is high-risk, high-return, China will likely test the West's red lines, test their own capabilities, and probe other areas where the Communist Party's survival is possible and where there are exit strategies even if they fail. It's like a practice test before the college entrance exams. Only after this is successful will Taiwan enter the countdown, and if it fails, it would be the best outcome for Taiwan. I believe the most dangerous places are the Philippines and Vietnam.