Very Strong El Niño Present in Tropical Pacific — PAGASA
A very strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
At a House Committee on Agriculture and Food briefing on Wednesday, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) chief Ana Liza Solis said the El Niño is expected to last until the first quarter of 2027.
"As of today, based on the preliminary assessments of global prediction centers, a very strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific," Solis said.
"Most climate models predict that the ongoing El Niño will persist until the first quarter of 2027 and peak before the end of 2026," she added.
PAGASA issued an El Niño watch in March and raised it to an alert in April.
Solis said PAGASA issued its first El Niño advisory last June.
"A prolonged dry spell can lead to meteorological drought, and even other types of drought such as agricultural drought and hydrological drought. We hope it doesn't spread to socioeconomic drought, but the possibility is always there," she said.
"Temperatures nationwide will be slightly above normal to above normal, and tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall can still occur," Solis added.
Solis said that as of October 31, five provinces were already experiencing meteorological drought. "A prolonged drought means rainfall has dropped significantly, by up to 60%, over about five months."
She added that 11 provinces and highly urbanized cities are already experiencing a dry spell, while 10 provinces are experiencing dry conditions.
According to the forecast, Solis said 6 provinces will experience drought by the end of November, 26 provinces by the end of December, 48 provinces by the end of January 2027, 68 provinces by the end of February 2027, and 87 provinces by the end of March and April 2027.
https://politiko.com.ph/very-strong-el-nino-present-in-tropical-pacific-pagasa/
So that's why it's the Amihan (northeast monsoon) season and daytime temperatures still climb to 35 degrees.
They say La Niña might come after that, in 2027 and 2028.
Usually there's a typhoon that enters the Philippines in November. But because of this super El Niño, I wonder if that's also why Typhoon In-fa didn't enter or graze the PAR and veered toward Japan instead.
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