April inflation could exceed 4-5% if oil prices continue to rise

The Philippines' inflation in April could surge past 4% to as high as 5% if the global oil price hike continues.

Oxford Economics analyzed that the surge in global crude oil prices due to the Middle East conflict will further push up inflation in the Philippines in the second quarter.

According to ING's analysis, if oil prices remain at around $90 to $100 per barrel, price pressures will intensify, and if they stay above $100, the current account deficit could widen to 4% of GDP.

The BSP has raised its annual inflation forecast for 2026 to 5.1%, exceeding its target range of 2-4%. However, it expects a return to the target range in 2027.

On March 28, the trade secretary secured a commitment from manufacturers and retailers to refrain from price increases until April 16, but maintaining price stability is expected to be difficult if oil price hikes persist.

Article published: March 22, 2026

Source: Philstar — Inflation seen to breach 4% as oil prices surge